HSBC Global Investment Research found no evidence of an AI-driven jobs collapse in the Philippines or India, two of the world’s largest outsourcing hubs, in a Sept. 4 note that also flagged the industry’s own scaled-back revenue growth targets.
Philippine employment in IT and professional services has kept rising every year since 2022, the bank found, with AI reshaping which roles grow rather than eliminating jobs outright.
HSBC finds no AI-driven jobs collapse
HSBC Chief Asia Economist Frederic Neumann said that “other business services,” such as those offered by the BPO sector, should, in theory, be vulnerable to AI automation. But that hasn’t shown up in the data.
“There has also been no ‘apocalypse’ in services jobs in the Philippines—if anything, employment has accelerated,” Neumann said in a Sept. 4 report.
As reported by the Inquirer, HSBC pointed to Philippine employment data showing continuous growth in information technology and professional, scientific, and technical roles dating back to 2022, alongside a longer uptrend in services exports stretching to 2006.
AI might be strengthening the industry it was expected to disrupt
“What explains this service export resilience?” Neumann asked. “It might be, of course, that AI has yet to make an impact. But it might also be that AI actually supports BPO to economies like India and the Philippines by making local workers more productive, quality control easier, and remote processing even more feasible.”
Neumann added, “Here, too, export revenue from ‘other business services,’ mainly from the BPO sector, rose steadily in recent years, with no collapse evident. True, the growth rate since 2023 has been lower than in the run-up to the pandemic, but the sector is still expanding at a healthy clip—and not stumbling as some might have feared.”
Philstar reported a similar point elsewhere in the same note: “Sure, there are changes beneath the surface: some jobs have become obsolete, others are in greater demand, but the outsourcing sector is adjusting.”
Jobs hold, but growth targets shrink
Despite HSBC’s findings, IBPAP, the industry’s umbrella group, has cut its 2028 revenue projection to a range of $43.3 billion to $50.5 billion, a steep reduction from the $59 billion goal set when the group launched its six-year roadmap in 2022.
Nonetheless, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported services exports rose 6.9% year on year in the second quarter, outpacing the 2.6% growth posted in the first quarter. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas projects total services exports to grow 3% year-on-year to $53 billion in 2026, with BPO revenue specifically projected to rise 2.5% to $34.3 billion.
What this means for the BPO industry
The pattern is consistent across the coverage. Employment is holding steady even as growth ambitions cool. For providers, this is a useful data point against the narrative that AI is simply erasing outsourcing jobs. It supports a different story—that AI is reshaping which roles grow and shrink within the industry.
For clients evaluating providers, the takeaway is that a stable or growing headcount does not guarantee the same revenue or margin trajectory once assumed, so providers who can show how they are redeploying talent toward AI-augmented, higher-value work will be the more resilient long-term partners.
Read more Unity Communications and industry news on our main BPO News page.
Cigaral, I. N. P. (2026, September 8). PH BPO jobs showing resilience amid AI disruption,
HSBC says. Philippine Daily Inquirer. Retrieved from https://business.inquirer.net/609797/ph-bpo-jobs-showing-resilience-amid-ai-disruption-hsbc-says
Chan, K. (2026, September 7). No collapse evident in BPOs despite AI—HSBC.
BusinessWorld. Retrieved from https://bworldonline.com/economy/2026/09/07/775218/no-collapse-evident-in-bpos-despite-ai-hsbc/
Ta-Asan, K. (2026, September 8). Philippines’ outsourcing sector holds amid AI concerns.
Philstar. Retrieved from https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/09/08/2554674/philippines-outsourcing-sector-holds-amid-ai-concerns
